Monday 4/13/09 service plays chatter /comps/ requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 4/13/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Jim Feist

(501) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
(502) INDIANA PACERS
Take "(502) INDIANA PACERS"

The Pacers may be out of a postseason spot, but they are playing great ball. The Pacers responded from blowing a double-digit lead earlier in the fourth quarter to beat the playoff-bound Detroit Pistons 106-102 Saturday at Conseco Fieldhouse. "Like I've been saying, the commitment you make as an NBA player is you play 82 games, regardless if you're playing for the playoffs or you're not in the playoffs," Pacers guard Jarrett Jack said. "You go about it in a professional manner, and I think that's what everybody is doing." In a sense, this is their playoff game, hosting the best team in the league. Cleveland plays its 3rd game in 4 nights and is off its emotional home blowout win over rival Boston Sunday. A great spot for the home team. Play the Cavs.

He says take '' INDIANA PACERS '' but at the end '' PLAY THE CAVS '' which is the play ?
 

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Stephen Nover is on an 18-2 run... 6-0 yesterday

Steve Merril is hot with MLB, not sure of his exact record

Ben Burns has a 10* game of the year NBA play for today, he's also doing pretty well as of late.
 
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Comps

Tom Freese

Toronto at Minnesota

Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins and the Blue Jays are 22-6 their last 28 games vs. AL Central teams and they are 6-2 with Litsch vs. AL Central teams. Toronto is 11-5 their last 16 games as underdogs. Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey is 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. Toronto. Slowey is 1-8 his last 9 starts vs. AL East teams. The Twins are 6-14 their last 20 games vs. AL East teams and they are 5-16 their last 21 games with the Blue Jays. PLAY ON TORONTO + (Litsch vs. Slowey)
 
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Jimmy The Moose

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are coming off a shutout win over the Pirates yesterday afternoon in which Harang went the distance so the bullpen is rested if needed. Volquez has a bad outing in the opener so expect him to have a better performance in this one for the Reds. Going back to last season the Reds are 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. The Reds have won 2 of his 3 starts vs. the Brewers and both wins have come in Milwaukee. The Brewers played last night vs. the Cubs. Although its very early the Brewers haven't looked like the team that made the post season last season. The Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 trips to Milwaukee. Play on the Cincinnati Reds +.
 
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John Ryan

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota as they travel to face Dallas slated to start at 8:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 11 or fewer poits. Timberwolves are a solid 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Fine tuning this, we find that they are on a 4-0 ATS run after losing their previous game by 10 or more points SU. Further, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game; 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Dallas is only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day; 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take Minnesota.
 
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -133

The Cubs have won each of their first two road series' of the season and now they finally get to take the field for their home opener. We'll bet the Cubs this afternoon behind southpaw Ted Lilly. First off, the Rockies are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings and 7-20 in their last 27 meetings in Chicago. The Cubs are a rock solid 6-1 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Pitching is where Chicago has the big edge today as the Cubs are 21-8 in Lilly's last 29 starts, 10-3 in Lilly's last 13 home starts, 9-2 in Lilly's last 11 starts during game 1 of a series, and 7-0 in Lilly's last 7 Monday starts. The Rockies are 6-14 in Jimenez's last 20 road starts and just 4-12 in Jimenez's last 16 starts as a road underdog. Take the Cubbies today.
 
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Big Al Mcmordie

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: New York Yankees

At 7:05pm our member selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course it's way too early to count the Yankees out of anything yet. They may have lost two out of their first three games this season in Baltimore, lost to KC on Sunday, and A-Rod may be sorely missed in the lineup while he rehabs from his hip surgery, but there is still simply too much talent on this team for them to be dismissed in April, even though they have two of the best teams (the Rays and Red Sox) to contend with. Yankee games in Tampa used to be like home games because of all the New York fans down in that part of Florida (the Yanks spring training facility is right there as well), but that changed a bit last season. Still, the Yankees enjoyed their trips down to Florida's gulf coast, taking five of nine games played at Tropicana Field in 2008 (and 11 of 18 overall vs. the Rays). Look for reliable righthander Chien-Ming Wang to bounce back off of a sub-par first start against the Orioles. Wang has also enjoyed pitching at the Trop as in 2006 he went 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA there followed by 2-1 and 4.42 in 2007 and last year Wang only had one start there (in May) but pitched seven nearly-flawless innings. In fact if the Yankees were smart, they'd make sure all of Wang's starts were away from the Bronx as he was superb on the road last season (5-0 with a 2.12 ERA in seven starts). Take New York.
 
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Ben Burns

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Mavericks played yesterday, the second of back to back big games vs. New Orleans. They've got another big game vs. Houston on deck, to close out the regular season, followed by the playoffs. It should be easy for them to look past this evening's lowly opponent. With the T-Wolves at a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range, consider taking the points.
 
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Scott Spreitzer

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

Texas is back in its preferred warm weather after getting swept in Detroit over the weekend. They slaughtered Cleveland pitching on this field last week and tonight they get to face a relatively soft throwing Japanese pitcher who pitches to contact. Koji Uehara may be a new name for you, but he?s a 34-year old Japanese League veteran who is likely to be overmatched in the US. Note that he only lasted 5 innings in his debut start against the Yankees, getting ZERO strikeouts. He dodged bullets that day. Try ?pitching to contact? in Arlington and the scoreboard is going to light up. Vicente Padilla is going for the Rangers. He?s experienced in these conditions and has the look of a fast starter. His ERA in April and May of 2008 was a sharp 3.66 (given where he has to pitch). Texas should have a chip on its shoulder after getting swept over the weekend. Baltimore is in a letdown spot after a huge opening week at home against divisional rivals New York and Tampa Bay. The Rangers minus the price is the play.
 
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Craig Trapp

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Under 9.5

A great pitching matchup for Monday with 2 young pitchers that are looking for a great follow up to there very good first starts.

Floyd led the White Sox (3-3) with 17 wins in 2008 and looked sharp in his season debut. The right-hander allowed two runs and six hits and struck out nine in seven innings of a 2-0 loss to Kansas City on Wednesday. Floyd had little trouble beating the Tigers last season, going 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA in five games with the White Sox winning each contest. He is 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts versus Detroit and is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four games at Comerica Park. Pretty impressive numbers verse a pretty powerful offensive lineup in DET!

Miner allowed one run and six hits in 5 2-3 innings of a 5-1 win at Toronto on Wednesday, and is set to make his first appearance of the season at Comerica Park, where he hasn't had much success. The right-hander went 2-1 with a 6.26 ERA in eight home starts last season, compared to 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five road starts. One of his best home starts came against the White Sox, though. Miner, who went 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five games two starts versus Chicago last season, allowed two runs and five hits in six innings of a 6-4 home victory over the Sox on July 27. Young pitcher has got it now and will pitch great today!

Neither team plays small ball well and neither one of these pitchers give up many homeruns think this one will be a low scoring win for CHI. SCORE CHI 3 - DET 1
 
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Nick Parsons

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

The Blue Jays look to bounce back from an 8-4 loss in Cleveland their last time out and will do so behind the arm of Jesse Litsch. Litsch allowed 20 homers in 28 starts last season, so he usually does a fair job of keeping the ball in the park. He logged 176 innings last season, won 13 games and posted a 3.58 ERA. Litsch has been a solid addition to the Jays rotation since making his debut in 2007 and I expect him to settle down this evening after his first shaky start against the Tigers is done and under his belt. Toronto is 3-1 (+1.6 units) against right handed starters this year and I look for that trend to continue this evening!

Play on: Toronto
 
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LT Profits

Phillies/Nationals Under 9.5

The Washington Nationals have one of the worst offenses in the majors, and the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been scorching the ball the first week, so do not expect many fireworks this afternoon

The Nationals remain winless at 0-5 thus far, thanks in large part to a modest .244 team batting average. They now must go up against the ageless Jamie Moyer, who figures to have his way with this young lineup. This is precisely the type of team that Moyer has success against, as he is a master at keeping inexperienced batters off balance. Thus, it is no surprise that he was four for four in Quality Starts in his last four starts vs. Washington last year.

Now the Phillies are averaging 4.80 runs per game while getting off to a 3-2 start, but keep in mind that those games were in Philadelphia and Colorado, a couple of stadiums that are more hitter-friendly than Washington. Nationals starter Daniel Cabrera gave up five runs in six innings in his National League debut, but he does have a very live arm and he has the potential to succeed in the National League if he could keep his walks down.

Cabrera walked only two vs. the Marlins, and he could show marked improvement with similar control today vs. a free-swinging Phillies bunch. Thus, the Under looks like the way to go here.

Pick: Phillies/Nationals Under 9.5
 
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DUNKEL

Charlotte at New Jersey
The Nets are 5-1 in their last 6 as a home favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points, while the Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. New Jersey is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-3).

Game 501-502: Cleveland at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.336; Indiana 123.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 210
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 503-504: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.773; Washington 116.372
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.029; Detroit 122.651
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4); Over

Game 507-508: Charlotte at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.224; New Jersey 121.783
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 5 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-3); Under

Game 509-510: Orlando at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 121.714; Milwaukee 117.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+3 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: Minnesota at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.141; Dallas 125.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 13; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 11 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-11 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: New Orleans at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.093; Houston 122.868
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 515-516: LA Clippers at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 108.214; Utah 122.831
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14 1/2; 222 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 517-518: Sacramento at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 109.507; Denver 125.545
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 16; 229
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 519-520: Memphis at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 114.798; Phoenix 125.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 221 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9); Over

Game 521-522: Oklahoma City at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 110.454; Portland 127.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 17 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 13 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-13 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: San Antonio at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 117.423; Golden State 115.977
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


MLB

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to build on their 6-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Tampa Bay is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135).

Game 951-952: Houston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 13.968; Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.079
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.139; Cubs (Lilly) 14.936
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); N/A

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.107; Washington (Cabrera) 15.508
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Under

Game 957-958: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 14.813; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.746
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+150); Over

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.086; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.320
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Under

Game 963-964: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.962; Arizona (Davis) 15.104
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.159; Detroit (Miner) 16.605
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.645; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 17.081
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 16.036; Texas (Padilla) 14.596
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.009; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.898
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Over

Game 973-974: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Litsch) 14.399; Minnesota (Slowey) 15.835
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under

Game 975-976: Boston at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.727; Oakland (Braden) 15.759
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125); Over
 

Say Hello To My Little Friend, Steve Puppet!
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I guess we'll see how Anthony Redd is at baseball today.
 

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Mike rose

I was wondering if anyone is picking up Mike Rose today... yesterday he went 5-0 in baseball...overall season by season...he is very consistent
 

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